Will US Attack Iran?

Iran is conducting naval exercises in the Persian Gulf

In reply to America’s threat to impose economic sanctions on Iran for its efforts to go nuclear, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf. Already Iran is conducting naval exercises styled as Velayat-90 in the Persian Gulf. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, then no oil tanker can flow through it. This will disturb oil traffic in the world and shoot up the oil prices. It will affect American economy also. Under the circumstances, what will be the reaction of President Obama? Will he still go through the sanctions against Iran and invite trouble? Or will he backtrack? If Obama backtracks, that will lower America’s esteem in the eyes of the other nations in the world. It will sound a death blow for Obama’s chances of retaining his Presidency for a second term.

American military is far superior to Iran

On paper, American military is far superior to Iran’s. America has the technology. It can launch a war and cripple Iran as it did in Afghanistan. Iranian military, with its limited capability, is no match to American weapons of mass destruction. USA has proved time and again that it is the only superpower in the world. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, USA struck heavy blows against Iraq and liberated Kuwait. When the Talibans struck the World Trade Centre and killed more than 3000 American civilians, USA struck again and killed more than a million Afghan civilians. It rooted the Taliban government and installed its puppet regime in Kabul under the head of Hamid Karzai. USA struck against Iraq, captured and killed Saddam Hussein through a jungle Court martial.

Iran was an American satellite under the Shah of Iran

China fears to take over Taiwan because of fear of USA. China fears to attack India and take over Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims as its own, because of its fear of USA. China is thinking twice to attack Vietnam because of its fear of America. All the countries of the world either respect USA and want to be in its good books or at least do not want to cross USA in any matter. But Iran is the lone exception to this rule. And it has survived so far! To be exact, Iran was also a pliable country to USA under the regime of the Shah Pahlavi who was Iranian monarch till 1979. The so called Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran and brought in the religious supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini after a brief reign of Shapur Bhaktiar who was also thrown out.

Capture of American Embassy in Teheran

Immediately after the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini announced withdrawal of Iranian funds from American banks. Stock market indices worldwide started falling till President Jimmy Carter froze all the Iranian assets in US banks. Stock markets then recovered. Angry at this, Ayatollah Khomeini sent the Islamic guards to capture the American Embassy in Teheran. More than three hundred staff of the US Embassy were captured and held as hostages within the Embassy compound. The entire world condemned this barbaric and uncivilized behaviour of Iran in the name of Islam. But Iran never cared. While it released all the black people in the name of humanitarian consideration, it continued to hold the white people. President Carter sent commandos in helicopters to rescue the embassy employees, but the helicopters developed snag and crashed in the desert, killing the crew and other commandos. Iran laughed at this America plight. Though the hostages were released much later without any harm, Iran scored a sarcastic victory over USA.

Is Ayatollah Khameini hospitalised?

From then onwards, Iran has continuously opposed USA in every matter. No other country has ever done like that and survived. Iranians never cared for economic sanctions and were prepared for sacrifices to stick to their anti-American stand. When Salmon Rushdie wrote his Satanic Verses which contained some objectionable matters criticising the principles of Islam, Iran reacted. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini issued a fatwa to kill Rushdie. Rushdie is living with security till date, fearing an attack on him at any time from Iranian fanatics. But there are also some surprises from Iran. When everybody expected that the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Al Khameini will issue a fatwa to kill the Pakistani film actress Veena Malik for her obscene photographs that appeared in an Indian magazine, Khameini kept quiet. This prompted many analysts to speculate whether Ayatollah Khameini is not well or is hospitalised.

Many Arab countries are against Iran

Coming to the present crisis, it seems that USA will go through with the sanctions. In that case, Iran also will stick to its stand and will block traffic through Strait of Hormuz, causing a disruption of oil supply to the world. If this happens, what will be the next step of USA? USA has a big military presence in the Middle East. USA may deploy this force to challenge Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Or USA may use its airforce to drop bombs on Iranian soldiers and navy manning the Strait of Hormuz. Israel may also join the battle against Iran as Iran had earlier threatened to wipe Israel out of the world map, possibly with its nuclear weapons. The other Arab States may also join directly or indirectly in the war in favour of USA. Almost all the Arab countries are against Iran. The Shia-Sunni conflict has been raging in the Gulf for quite some time. Iran is a Shia country whereas Saudi Arabia, the abode of Islam, is a Sunni country.

Many Iranians may actually welcome American military intervention

Iran definitely will not be able to counter the American superiority in the war. Sooner or later it will have to return to the negotiating table or else face the same consequences as Afghanistan faced earlier. If the war extends beyond some time, Iranian government may fall and even the Supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khameini may be removed or even killed. Iran may have a progressive government in which religious influence may be at the minimum. These are what many Iranian people also want but are unable to get. Many Iranians may actually welcome an American intervention if that means the fall of their government and their Supreme religious leader.

USA should not poke its nose in the internal affairs of Iran

But a warning to USA is a must in the present circumstances. America should not poke its nose in the internal affairs of Iran. After the war is over and with the fall of the Iranian government, USA should leave the internal affairs of Iran in the hands of Iranians themselves after destroying the Iranian nuclear plant. If USA tries to stage its troops on the soil of Iran as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq, it will face a severe rebuff by the Iranian people. The Iranians may be angry with their government and leaders like Ahmadinejad and Khameini for manipulating the results of the recent elections held. They may be longing to have a modern government without the religious elements as is the case in Turkey. They may even use the opportunity of a war with USA to achieve their desire. But it does not mean that the Iranians will welcome the American troops on their soil. This is an important matter for America to remember. It should not become that python that swallowed a porcupine and in the end had to spit it with blood in its mouth and its tongue torn.